Written by Joyce Houeiss for JNews Lebanon
The Lebanese scene has entered its most complex military and diplomatic bottleneck since the beginning of the confrontations, as preparations begin for the upcoming fifth round of diplomatic negotiations in Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday. This comes in the wake of a fierce military round held a few days ago. In a notable escalatory move, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz announced in a joint statement that they had issued orders to the Israeli army to target the southern suburb of Beirut (Dahieh). This escalation, which Israeli Channel 14 revealed was carried out in direct coordination with the United States, places Lebanon before a harsh negotiating equation under fire, raising major question marks about a possible exit strategy amidst the current political deadlock.
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The Clash of Tracks: The US-Iranian Battlefield Confrontation
Diplomatic sources tell JNews Lebanon that a sharp clash is taking place behind the scenes of world capitals between two distinct tracks: a military track that Israel believes in and trusts far more than negotiating options—which, from another angle, intersects with Iran’s desire to reclaim the “Lebanese card” and utilize the arena as a leverage tool in its regional standoff. The second is a negotiating track that the United States is pushing for due to domestic reasons tied to President Donald Trump’s aspirations to mark a diplomatic achievement as a man of peace, and which the Lebanese state is holding onto as a less costly option than sliding into internal conflicts or leaving the country an open arena for settling scores between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
In this context, our diplomatic sources indicate that for the diplomatic path to surpass the language of the battlefield and impose itself, the Lebanese state is demanded to immediately assume its full sovereign duties and confront the sole obstacle represented by Hezbollah’s ongoing monopolization of the decision of war and peace.
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A Closed Horizon: No Ceasefire Without Ending the State of War
Cross-referenced data made available to private sources at JNews Lebanon indicates that the negotiations have hit a dead end due to a fundamental divergence in priorities. Lebanon is demanding an immediate ceasefire, whereas Israel conditions any security arrangements on the disarmament of Hezbollah first. In the face of this reality, private sources at our site conclude that the conventional logic of a “ceasefire” has become a thing of the past and a waste of time for both Lebanon and the state itself. All parties, including the Israeli negotiator and the Resistance Axis, recognize that there is no room for halting military operations without establishing a decisive and sustainable plan to completely “end the state of war.” Hezbollah’s repeated attempts to demand a ceasefire to catch its breath and reposition itself are no longer spendable in the current international calculations.
Western Support and the Opportunity for Sovereign Salvation
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The clear Western support for Lebanon toward restricting weapons to the legitimate authorities and disarming the party must, according to JNews Lebanon’s diplomatic sources, serve as a primary incentive for the Lebanese state to carry out its constitutional responsibilities. The previously dominant logic that “avoiding internal conflict takes precedence over everything else” is precisely what led the country into this catastrophic and destructive war. Instead of finding internal sovereign solutions, Lebanon was turned into an open battlefield where conditions are dictated by iron and fire. Private sources emphasize that the party will not succeed this time in imposing the terms of the Iranian axis or gaining a free truce, because the current path is heading toward a complete termination of the Iranian project and its armed proxies in the region, marking the beginning of the phase where the Lebanese state reclaims its confiscated decision-making power.
As for the Iranian bet on linking the fate of the Lebanese arena to the draft of the comprehensive agreement with Washington, it appears, according to diplomatic sources, to be drawing its last breaths. Iran, which established its factions in the region to protect its interests, is now the one being demanded to end its regional project to ensure its own survival as a state, which strictly means lifting the cover on its proxies and dismantling its armed apparatus. As the Lebanese delegation heads to Washington amidst the echoes of coordinated bombing on Dahieh, the only remaining bet to salvage what is left of the nation is the courage of the Lebanese state to declare its full commitment to international legitimacy resolutions and enforce its exclusive authority over its entire national territory.
