written by Joyce houeiss for JNews Lebanon
The ink has barely dried on the signing of the trilateral “Framework Agreement” in Washington, yet its aftershocks are already reverberating like a political and security earthquake across Lebanese political salons. It raises the ultimate question currently consuming decision-making capitals: Will this agreement fundamentally flip the internal and regional balance of power in Lebanon, potentially marking the beginning of the end for non-state weaponry?
The agreement explicitly dictates working toward permanent peace and security between Lebanon and Israel, ending the state of war, ceasing hostilities, and thoroughly addressing the root causes of the conflict. This development has triggered intense public friction and anticipation, splitting Lebanese public opinion down the middle between those welcoming the reclamation of state legitimacy and those warning of a dangerous leap into the unknown.
Total Fury in Haret Hreik as Agreement Follows “Baabda’s Terms”
Highly placed political sources close to the matter have disclosed to JNews Lebanon that the corridors of Haret Hreik are experiencing a state of total, unprecedented fury following the announcement of the framework agreement. Our exclusive sources reveal that Hezbollah’s leadership views the formula signed in Washington—backed heavily by Baabda and the Serail—as a direct attempt to encircle the group and strip away its battlefield legitimacy through an unprecedented international and regional diplomatic cover.
Sources clarify that the core of the group’s anxiety and anger is not merely confined to the “Model Zones” clause (agreed upon by both the Lebanese and Israeli militaries), but rather stems from the Lebanese state’s explicit and documented commitment within the text to “reclaiming total sovereignty and achieving the disarmament of illegal armed groups.” This places the group’s arsenal for the first time in direct opposition to formal diplomatic commitments signed by the legitimate authorities of the state.
In this context, diplomatic circles that closely monitored the drafting of the text in Washington believe that the real danger looming on the horizon is the likelihood of Hezbollah attempting to detonate the entire track on the ground. This could unfold through engineered, wide-scale security and military escalations against Israel on the border—a preemptive move designed to reshuffle the cards, embarrass the Lebanese military delegation, and paralyze the implementation mechanisms of the two pilot zones.
Anticipated Scenarios: Will the State Succeed in Asserting Sovereignty?
Faced with this evolving reality, projections by the specialized political analysis unit at JNews Lebanon indicate three main scenarios governing the upcoming phase:
- Scenario One (Restrained Domestic Friction): Hezbollah may try to sustain an atmosphere of calculated political and security unrest internally (as seen in the intimidating motorbike convoys around the Musharafieh bridge and threats of civil war) to pressure the government into freezing the technical execution of the accord, while carefully avoiding a direct kinetic clash with the Lebanese Army.
- Scenario Two (Preemptive Border Explosion): Field dynamics could unravel into an outright military confrontation on the southern border, completely collapsing the ceasefire and re-linking the Lebanese arena directly to the regional “Strait of Hormuz” escalation to strengthen Iran’s hand in broader U.S. negotiations.
- Scenario Three (Enforcing Legitimate Authority): The Lebanese Army, heavily backed by a solid regional political umbrella and newly pledged American financial support ($30 million from the Pentagon alongside $100 million in humanitarian aid), succeeds in executing a decisive and firm deployment within the first “Model Zone” south of the Litani and west of Wadi al-Salouqi. This would place the international community before a genuine test to shield Lebanese sovereignty.
Caught between Baabda’s historical pledge to “capitalize on national sacrifices and assert the rule of law” and Hezbollah’s veto which labels the accord a recipe for civil war, Lebanon enters a volatile political tunnel. One thing is certain: the balance of power will never be the same as it was before the Washington talks.
