Lebanon has entered a new political and security phase following unprecedented US sanctions targeting current MPs, security officials, officers, and an Iranian diplomat. This move reflects Washington’s transition from traditional financial pressure to a policy of striking the political, administrative, and security infrastructure that the United States considers a protective umbrella for Hezbollah’s influence within state institutions.
The danger of these sanctions lies in their timing, content, and the messages they carry, especially since they came at the height of international efforts to rearrange the Lebanese situation from a security and political standpoint through US-mediated negotiations between Lebanon and Israel in Washington.
A diplomatic source in Beirut revealed to the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Anbaa that “by issuing these sanctions, the US administration wanted to send a direct message that the coming phase will not be limited to diplomatic or political pressure, but will rather include everyone Washington considers part of the political, security, and financial protection network that allows the ‘Party’s’ influence to persist within the Lebanese state. Furthermore, blacklisting MPs in the Lebanese parliament at this level carries a significance that goes beyond individual sanctions, as it reflects a US tendency to deal with the Party as part of an integrated governance system, rather than just a military organization.”
The source explained that “Washington also wanted to demonstrate its conviction that the issue of disarmament is no longer tied solely to the military reality in southern Lebanon, but has become linked to the structure of political, security, and administrative decision-making within the state. Therefore, the circle of sanctions was expanded to include figures the US administration deems influential in protecting or facilitating the continuation of this reality. Meanwhile, the inclusion of Lebanese officers and security officials constitutes the most dangerous aspect of the US decision, because it opens the door to an extensive phase of international scrutiny regarding the performance of certain official Lebanese institutions and their internal relations.”
The source considered that “the underlying motive of the sanctions carries a direct message of pressure to the new Lebanese authority, to the effect that the international community expects practical—not just political—steps regarding the state’s exclusive monopoly on weapons and the re-establishment of state authority. The US administration believes that the regional timing has become appropriate to impose new equations in Lebanon following the shifts the region has witnessed over the past months. Therefore, Washington is acting on the basis that the margin for traditional compromises has begun to narrow, and that the long phase of coexistence between the state and Hezbollah is no longer acceptable to America.”
The source pointed out that “including the Iranian diplomat in the sanctions falls within the framework of holding Tehran directly responsible for the continuation of the Lebanese crisis, and is an attempt to issue a warning that any future Iranian role in Lebanon will remain under the US microscope. This measure also intersects with a broader US path aimed at reducing Iranian influence in multiple regional arenas, in parallel with reshaping security and political balances in the region.”
The source believed that “the most dangerous aspect of the US stances accompanying the sanctions is the clear talk that what happened is only the beginning. This practically means that new lists are being prepared and may include additional political, administrative, and financial figures, and perhaps institutions or economic networks that Washington considers part of the indirect financing or protection system. The relevant US authorities possess a vast amount of data and information, and the coming phase may witness the transition of sanctions from a symbolic and political framework to measures that are more painful on a financial and economic level.”
The source stressed that “the internal repercussions of these sanctions will be wide-ranging because they will push many political forces to recalculate their positions, especially since the American message appeared to be directed at the Party’s allies and its political environment, and not just at the Party itself. Moreover, targeting figures linked to official institutions will increase the sensitivity of the relationship between Lebanon and the United States, and may impose delicate challenges on the Lebanese state regarding how to deal with this escalation without exposing its institutions to further pressure or isolation.”
The source noted that “through these steps, Washington is trying to impose new political realities in Lebanon in parallel with the ongoing security and military pressures in the region. The coming phase will show whether the sanctions will remain within the framework of political messages, or if they will serve as a prelude to a more comprehensive escalatory path that could impact the structure of the Lebanese system and its foreign and financial relations in an unprecedented manner.”
